Guantanamo Prediction

You know how I love making predictions, protected in this warm envelope of anonymity as I am.

Hamdan vs Rumsfeld should precipitate the closing of Guantanamo. The international chorus has reached a crescendo over the last few months, forcing Bush himself to say recently that he would like to see the prison closed. It is an universal black mark on our no longer shining city, and it must be addressed. At this point, since it is no longer the legal blackhole the Administration has used it as the last few years, its closure is imminent, barring political considerations. That being said, it still could take some time since we have to make arrangements for the current residents, and, of course, President Bush can't be seen as immediately cowed by something as trivial as an equal branch of government.

Or, I suppose that the Republicans could use this decision to pick a fight by introducing a bill to authorize the military tribunals, but Mr. 35% doesn't have a lot of capital to throw around. If they went for it, you know how it would be: "Democrats and the Supreme Court want to tie the hands of the President in this war on terror." Nevermind that three of the 5 majority justices were appointed by Republicans. Those appointments were "mistakes," you see, thus rendering those judges liberal.

Where do you think the decision will fall? Will the Republican Party embrace the court's decision and move towards ending the legal limbo that is the Guantanamo detention facility, or will they pick a fight with the Democrats to help save their hides in '06? Will policy or politics prevail? As much as we've seen politics as the golden idol of this administration, that doesn't mean they'll view this as a fertile ground to pick those fights. Surely, Republicans will not universally rally to the President's call for unfair tribunals, and if the Democrats can maintain unity we can use that disagreement among Republicans to sow further dissention. Surely, McCain and Graham wouldn't tote the White House line on a such a gambit, right?