2006-06-05

Vulnerable Oil

First, a change in policy from the Supreme Leader:
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, supreme leader of the world's fourth-largest oil exporter, said on Sunday that if the United States makes a "wrong move" toward Iran, energy flows in the region would be endangered.

Iranian officials have previously ruled out using oil as a weapon in their nation's nuclear standoff with the West, but Khamenei's comments suggested Iran could disrupt supplies if pushed.

Next, proof that they could do it:
Two months ago, Iran staged naval war games in the Gulf, a shipping route that accounts for two-fifths of all globally traded oil. Analysts interpreted the maneuvers as a message Iran could disrupt vital oil supply lines if it came under international pressure. (emphasis mine)
This is an acknowledgement from the Iranians that the threat they face in the ongoing situation is real, and although they could affect oil shipments, I hope they believe the cost to their government would be too great. It would be the ultimate pyrrhic victory, since our rage would be unparalleled. Think our reaction to the murders of 3000 Americans on U.S. soil was harsh? Just wait until oil hits $250 a barrel.

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